FUTURES THINKING
Transforming the system
Futures Thinking
We live in a world of complexity and uncertainty. We need to continuously navigate our way from our current situation to one that might be thought of as an aspirational future – the world in which we would like to live. The journey between these two worlds is often transformational for those on the journey and the landscapes they navigate and with which they interact. Simple forecasting or generating traditional roadmaps will not suffice. We need pathways which we can adapt as the future emerges. And to help us find and make best use of those pathways we need tools that will optimise our agency and its impact as we go.
Futures thinking has to go past just thinking and enable the creation of actions and help them to be brought into play to encourage the unfolding of the aspirational future.
Three Horizons:
A core method for this kind of work is Three Horizons.
We can use this with small groups or large, online or face to face as and when circumstances allow. We facilitate a group to generate a shared view of the current system on which they are focused – the first horizon, or Horizon One. This will include a systemic view of what is driving this horizon and holding it back. The Third Horizon is the aspirational future where Horizon One has been transformed. We help the group generate their shared view of this aspirational world. The transformational journey between Horizons One and Three is the second horizon – Horizon Two. This is the transformational and adaptive pathway to Horizon Three. It is in Horizon Two that the issues of Horizon One are addressed without destroying the essential aspects of Horizon One that we will need into the future.
In this way of thinking the three horizons are not sequential. All three are present at any time, all the time. They will be in varying degrees of emergence or change – this is not a static picture.
